CMBS issuance has roared back, yet distress, especially in office keeps building. In this episode, Michael Haas, founder & CEO of Credit IQ, joins us to separate signal from noise across CMBS and CRE CLOs. We dig into what the data shows right now, why CMBS has been winning share from the GSEs, and how five-year structures and bank scrutiny are shaping borrower behavior. Mike explains his firm’s definition of distress (special servicing and/or delinquency), the flight-to-quality dynamic in office, and the early warning triggers their team watches: occupancy drops, DSCR trends, tenant downsizes, and debt-yield thresholds. We also unpack details behind headline cases like Worldwide Plaza and Times Square retail, why small rate cuts won’t fix maturity walls, and where resolutions are getting stuck. The team wraps with a positive scenario that would mark a true market turning point.
01:15 2024 issuance strength vs. 2023 and prior cycles
02:18 Why CMBS is taking share from Fannie/Freddie
03:31 Office distress, flight to quality, and trophy-asset risk
09:02 Early distress triggers & daily alerts
13:25 Debt yield as the refi gate; why 25 bps won’t move the needle
24:55 Case studies: Worldwide Plaza; Times Square retail condo
Have questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com
