Avoid the CRE FOMO: The CRE News You Need to Know – September 29

The Latest Data, News, and Analysis Impacting the Commercial Real Estate Market

Tariffs are back in the headlines. Effective October 1, President Trump rolled out a new package that includes a 100% tariff on branded/patented pharmaceuticals from companies not building U.S. plants. The major move comes alongside a 25% levy on heavy trucks, 50% on kitchen cabinets/vanities, and 30% on upholstered furniture. Separately, the administration is floating a semiconductor plan requiring a 1:1 ratio of U.S.-made to imported chips across a company and its customers, with tariffs for firms that miss the mark. The proposal would favor chipmakers adding domestic capacity but could be complex to implement across global supply chains. Markets initially took the news in stride, with broad indexes little changed. Sector moves were mixed with pressure on furniture retailers and truck OEMs with Mexico exposure. Responses were more nuanced for pharma depending on companies’ U.S. build plans. In a swift corporate response, Amgen announced a $650 million investment to expand production in Puerto Rico, adding to its $900 million spend in Ohio and another $1 billion in North Carolina.

The LightBox Take: The news is another strong onshoring tailwind with capital likely to pivot toward power-dense U.S. advanced-manufacturing sites with robust utilities, workforce, and incentives. Amgen’s $650M expansion is an early tell. Others may follow to secure exemptions, lifting demand for specialized industrial and life-science real estate in select metros. The Supreme Court hears challenges to the tariff regime in November. Current measures remain in force pending that decision, so pipeline decisions are likely to keep favoring U.S. capacity.

August PCE inflation rose 0.3% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year, a touch firmer than July’s 2.6% but broadly in line with expectations. Core PCE (excluding food and energy) increased 0.2% month over month and held at 2.9% year over year. The mix keeps Fed Chair Powell’s “no risk-free path” narrative intact. Inflation continues to be sticky above the 2% target, but not re-accelerating. Markets took the print in stride. After the release, stocks edged higher with the Dow up by 0.4% and the S&P 500 up 0.2%, while the 10-year Treasury yield hovered near 4.18%. This latest round of data fits a path of measured easing on the interest rate front, provided labor continues to cool and tariff pass-through remains gradual.  The September jobs report and next round of CPI will shape the future pace.

The LightBox Take: The PCE report doesn’t justify pausing the new easing cycle triggered by September’s 25 bps cut, nor does it argue for more rapid cuts. With headline inflation near 2.7% and core at 2.9%, another cut at the Fed’s late-October meeting stays on the table if employment and services inflation cooperate.

The LightBox Major CRE Transaction Tracker Report points to solid dealmaking so far in Q3. Nine-figure deals (above $100M million) and mid-cap trades ($50-100 million) ran 12-13% above the 2025 monthly average, evidence that capital continues to flow despite uncertainty surrounding interest rates, tariffs, and labor. By asset class, nine-figure transaction activity leaned into large multifamily portfolios and trophy retail, while mid-cap sales were more diversified (industrial, office, mixed-use) with a broader buyer mix stepping in. With September closing this week, the next LightBox CRE Activity Index reading will show whether the three-digit momentum (i.e., above 100) extends into an eighth month. The Fed’s 25 bps cut won’t reset valuations overnight, but it helps floating-rate borrowers and could unlock new loan originations especially if additional cuts follow this fall. As Manus Clancy noted, “Rate relief is the catalyst everyone has been waiting for. As capital gets even slightly cheaper, expect lenders to lean in.”  

The LightBox Take: Early reads suggest September volume is tracking robustly and likely to land above August’s healthy level. The first 25 bps cut improves psychology as much as math. Further easing would narrow the bid–ask gap and boost transactions. Still, tariff pass-through risk and long-end rate volatility still argue for disciplined underwriting on assumptions about rent growth, capex, and lease-up.

The U.S. Department of Justice, on behalf of the EPA, moved to lift the abeyance in litigation over the EPA’s 2024 designation of PFOA and PFOS as CERCLA hazardous substances, stating: “The EPA has completed its review and has decided to keep the CERCLA Rule in place.” The motion also commits the EPA to work with Congress and the industry to ensure “a clear liability framework that ensures the polluter pays and passive receivers are protected.” Together with a related motion under the Safe Drinking Water Act (SDWA), the EPA put regulated parties on notice that Superfund liability for PFOA/PFOS and enforceable SDWA MCLs remain central to its PFAS strategy. Practically, the decision preserves “polluter pays” under CERCLA for PFOA/PFOS releases, keeping manufacturers, historical users, and other potentially responsible parties squarely in the liability chain. While the EPA signaled it does not intend to target passive receivers (e.g., municipal wastewater utilities) as Congress considers tailored protections, current owners/operators still face CERCLA’s strict, joint-and-several framework if PFAS are present. Given PFAS’ persistence and links to health impacts, expect continued enforcement, contribution claims among PRPs, and tighter scrutiny in transactions, especially where legacy uses (e.g., AFFF, plating/coating, landfills, biosolids, certain semiconductor/bioprocess operations) may have introduced PFOA/PFOS to soil or groundwater.

The LightBox Take: With CERCLA liability affirmed and SDWA actions advancing, PFAS risk management remains on the front burner in environmental due diligence. Environmental professionals play an important role in identifying PFAS in Phase I ESAs that precede CRE transactions. To fully assess potential liability upfront, commercial real estate lenders are increasingly incorporating PFAS risk assessments into underwriting. Property purchasers should recognize that acquiring a PFAS-impacted site can trigger liability unless they meet All Appropriate Inquiries (AAI), including a Phase I ESA by a qualified environmental professional, and follow ongoing obligations.

A round of multifamily deals in the Seattle area could be an early signal of a market thaw. In one, Security Properties acquired a five-property, 903-unit portfolio from Washington Holdings for a headline $400.8-million deal (roughly $444K/unit), one of the largest Seattle-area MF trades year to date. At the same time, 8th + Republican in South Lake Union changed hands for $94.8 million ($450K/unit). South Lake Union, home to major tech employers, continues to command near-core pricing for post-2015 Class A assets. Add Virtú Investments’ purchase of the Link/Mural duo in West Seattle, and you have a September tape that looks meaningfully busier than the first half of the year. 

The LightBox Take: Recent analyst and industry outlooks continue to rank multifamily as 2025’s most favored CRE asset class, citing relative demand durability, financing depth, and clearer price discovery versus other sectors. Seattle multifamily has been viewed as comparatively resilient among West Coast markets, helping justify renewed bids for stabilized portfolios and infill assets. With occupancy hovering around 95% and rents firming as new deliveries start to cool, the stage is set for larger, programmatic buys by major investors looking to place capital in a strong market.