As lenders, consultants, and advisors arrive in San Diego for the Environmental Bankers Association Annual Conference this week, the commercial real estate market is entering 2026 with a clearer sense of direction than it had a year ago. After several years marked by volatility, repricing, and policy uncertainty, the market is no longer searching for a quick rebound. Instead, it is settling into a period defined by steadier momentum, clearer pricing, and more disciplined capital deployment.
In a recent article published in the EBA Winter Journal, LightBox Research Director Dianne Crocker outlines the key forces shaping CRE lending and investment in the year ahead. Below are five signals she highlights as particularly important heading into EBA, along with why they matter for lenders and environmental professionals.
1. Interest Rates: Predictability Matters More Than Relief
Entering 2026, expectations around interest rates have shifted. Inflation is cooling, but not decisively. The labor market is slowing but not deteriorating sharply. Against that backdrop, banks are increasingly planning for a prolonged period of rate stability rather than meaningful near-term cuts.
For CRE lending, predictability may prove more valuable than relief. Stable financing conditions allow lenders and borrowers to underwrite with greater confidence, support refinancing activity, and narrow the bid-ask gap that constrained deal flow in prior years.
2. CRE Lending Is Poised to Accelerate
One of the clearest signals heading into 2026 is renewed momentum across the CRE debt landscape. Large banks enter the year with healthier balance sheets following several years of loan workouts, extensions, and balance-sheet repair.
Refinancing is expected to be the primary driver of lending growth. More than $500 billion in CRE loans are scheduled to mature over the next two years, creating steady demand for credit even as lenders remain selective on new acquisitions. Multifamily, industrial, self-storage, and grocery-anchored retail are expected to attract the most consistent capital, while office lending remains more cautious and asset-specific.
3. Year-End Deal Activity Set the Tone
Transaction momentum at the end of 2025 provided an early signal that pricing and liquidity are beginning to align. According to LightBox data, December marked a high-water point for deal activity, particularly for transactions above $50 million.
That year-end strength is expected to carry into 2026 as global private real estate capital continues to rebound and investors shift focus toward income stability and disciplined underwriting. Multifamily and industrial remain leaders, retail continues to benefit from resilient cash flow, and office activity is increasingly driven by repriced assets, selective leasing recovery, and redevelopment opportunities.
4. Cautious Optimism Remains the Dominant Sentiment
Across the CRE industry, sentiment has coalesced around cautious optimism. Major forecasters expect continued stabilization rather than a return to peak-cycle conditions. That view is echoed by environmental due diligence professionals, where refinancing activity, disciplined lending, and released pent-up demand are expected to support modest growth in Phase I ESA volume this year.
The tone is measured, but constructive. Lenders are leaning back in, with a sharper focus on risk, underwriting discipline, and asset-level clarity.
5. The CRE Activity Index Signals Building Momentum
LightBox’s CRE Activity Index continues to point toward gradual improvement across the transaction pipeline. Core components, including property listings, appraisals, and environmental due diligence, strengthened meaningfully year over year through the end of 2025.
Looking ahead, the Index is expected to surpass 100 later in 2026 for the first time since early 2023, signaling a broader and more durable recovery, assuming current momentum holds.
Looking Ahead to EBA
LightBox is at the Environmental Bankers Association Annual Conference this week, with Dianne Crocker delivering the keynote and Eric Bollens and Alan Agadoni participating in discussions on data, technology, and environmental due diligence.
As the conference gets underway, these signals point to 2026 shaping up as a year of steady progress rather than rapid acceleration. Capital is available, pricing has adjusted, and lenders are re-engaging with a clearer view of risk and return.
For a deeper look at these themes, including data and sector-specific detail, read Dianne Crocker’s full article in the EBA Winter Journal.
