By: Head of Data Strategy at LightBox, Manus Clancy
November delivered the kind of mixed economic signals that leave investors staring at their dashboards, wondering which way the road bends next. Job market worries kept a lid on investor optimism. Inflation eased but not enough to spark a breakout. Yet, amid the stop-and-go, CRE continued to show a stubborn ability to push forward.
If November was trying to tell us something, it may be that the broader markets are stuck in place — but CRE isn’t.
And the headlines told the same story — of which there were many.
A seven-week government shutdown ended early in the month. Democrats weren’t thrilled with the outcome, which means we may be doing this all again in January.
New York elected its 111th mayor — and first Socialist — Zohran Mamdani. His promised reforms across housing, policing, and transit will keep the papers busy for months. But plenty of New York property owners are reading between the lines — and they don’t love what they think they see coming.
One proposal in particular grabbed NYC real estate by the lapels. COPA — not the Barry Manilow nightclub, but the Community Opportunity to Purchase Act — would allow approved nonprofits first crack at buying buildings with three or more residential units. (What could go wrong?)
(Dianne Crocker and I dove into this on last week’s podcast. For those outside NYC: the affordable segment has been a bear market for years. Rent caps below inflation have driven deferred maintenance and cratered values by as much as 40%. Now, with buyers possibly being handcuffed on how they will sell their assets, where does the next generation of investors come from?)
The Economic Tape: Good, Bad, and Meh
On the positive side, CPI and PPI kept surprising to the downside. On the negative side, more companies announced meaningful layoffs. And in the “meh” column, long-term Treasury yields stayed range-bound, with the 10-year struggling to stay below 4% for long.
Concerns about weak credits in the private lending market didn’t help sentiment, either.
Globally, progress toward ending the nearly four-year war in Ukraine was offset by saber-rattling between the U.S. and Venezuela — as if we were auditioning to swap one geopolitical crisis for another.
The Nasdaq sagged more than 6% at one point as investors briefly questioned their devotion to AI. But by month’s end, most shrugged and said, “never mind.”
It’s no wonder November felt like a road to nowhere.
Where That Leaves Us
Two months ago, we noted that investors ended September in a “risk on” mood, only to turn cautious in late October. November cemented that unevenness.
The next catalyst is unclear. AI drove the market from April to early October, but the trade looks tired. A sustained drop in the 10-year below 4% could help, but only if it reflects strength, not recession fears.
Longer term, the White House’s push for “affordability” could eventually boost the economy, but these things take time (barring a full reverse on tariffs). On the downside, layoffs and geopolitical flare-ups create clear potential for negative momentum.
CRE Keeps Moving Even as Other Markets Stall
While the broader markets drifted, CRE did what it has done for much of 2024 and 2025: it kept moving.
Weekly announced sales stayed steady — a sign that noise from private credit concerns and recession chatter isn’t derailing transactions.
Risk premiums rose early in the month, and multifamily fundamentals remain sluggish on rents and NOI growth. But overall, CRE continues to push forward.
Capital remains available even for the trickiest projects: ground-up construction and office-to-residential conversions. Banks had a strong quarter, which should keep lending lines open into year-end. All four major pillars of CRE lending — CMBS, banks, insurers, and private equity — remain operational.
Big Deal Announcements Keep the Market Moving
Even in a month that felt stuck in neutral, the big deals kept rolling…and thank goodness, because where would this market be without at least one headline-grabbing data center trade?
- Senior living: CNL sold a major portfolio to Sonida Senior Living for $1.8 billion — a reminder that the aging-in-place demographic trend isn’t slowing down anytime soon.
- Student housing: Morgan Stanley and Global Student Accommodation dropped $1 billion on an eight-property student housing portfolio. Apparently, tuition isn’t the only thing that’s inflated.
- Data centers: Amazon bought Devlin Tech Park in Bristow, VA for $700 million. Another $615 million went toward data center land in Leesburg, VA. At this point, if you list your family home without adding “potential data center site,” you’re probably leaving money on the table.
- Hotels: Mori Trust purchased the Equinox Hotel in Hudson Yards for $541 million — roughly $2.5 million per key. That’s five times what many mid-tier NYC hotels fetch and more than double your typical boutique price. Wellness clearly still sells.
- Industrial: Prologis spent over $300 million ($330 per SF) for nearly one million square feet in Brisbane, CA, proving that industrial demand hasn’t lost its appetite.
- Multifamily: Sterling Investors and Simpson Housing paid $240 million for a 508-unit property in Reston, VA — one of the few multifamily deals to punch through the noise this month.
In other words: the CRE market keeps soldiering on.
What Comes Next
As we push toward year-end, CRE looks increasingly well positioned, but the margin for error is narrowing. If long-term yields behave and credit markets hold steady, capital will likely stay active through year-end. On the flip side, a renewed bout of economic or geopolitical stress could quickly rattle confidence.
Keep an eye on refinancing pipelines, yield trends, and credit-market signals. For now, CRE’s composed pace and selective deal flow suggest the market may crawl past volatility and into a stable new rhythm.
Stay tuned…because the next turn in the road could come sooner than we think.
