Presidential Pivot Sends Markets Surging: But CRE Needs to Read the Fine Print Insights| LightBox

By: Dianne Crocker, LightBox research director

Markets love clarity—even when it’s complicated. And today, they got just that.

In a reversal move of the April 2^nd “liberation day” tariff announcement, President Trump just announced a 90-day pause on most global tariffs, dropping the default rate to 10%. But later in the same day, the administration raised tariffs on Chinese imports to 125%. The easing of the global tariffs had an immediate impact.

The result? Markets surged.

Equities rallied on the idea that global trade disruptions would ease—at least outside of China. The one-day gain of the S&P 500 ranks as the third biggest since World War II for the main stock market benchmark, according to FactSet, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq roared ahead 12%, its best day in 24 years.

But in commercial real estate, the message is more nuanced. While today’s pivot may have lit a fire under the stock market, for CRE professionals, the implications are less straightforward—this is a time to stay grounded and read between the lines.

Industrial: The China Premium Just Got Real

The 125% tariff on Chinese imports is about to impact everything downstream. This means that companies that rely on Chinese supply chains now face serious cost implications, which could accelerate efforts to localize production.

For industrial CRE in select markets—like the Gulf Coast, the Southeast US, and major inland distribution hubs, this could end up being a net positive. But don’t expect a building spree anytime soon. Interest rates are still high, capital is cautious, and developers are picking their spots carefully.

It will also be interesting to keep an eye on absorption in reshoring-friendly metros like El Paso, Columbus, and Chattanooga. If this tariff policy holds, those markets could also see renewed momentum.

Retail: The Pain is Uneven

Retailers undoubtedly breathed a sigh of relief today as most global tariffs were paused—but for those brands with heavy exposure to Chinese goods, it’s a much different story.

With 125% duties on all imports from China, the cost structure for thousands of SKUs just went up significantly. This leaves retailers that sell Chinese products between a rock and a hard place: either pass costs onto their consumers or compress their margins. Either way, it could spell trouble for retail real estate owners with high exposure to discount tenants or retailers that sell import-heavy products like electronics, apparel, and furniture.

High-performing centers in affluent markets may hold steady but the market should expect more leasing hesitation in secondary markets and mid-tier strip malls.

Office and Multifamily: Watching Rates, Watching Jobs

While today’s drastic policy pivot helped soothe the rattled equity markets, it also complicated the inflation picture. If import costs from China begin flowing through to consumers, that could keep the Fed cautious—and interest rates higher for longer.

For office, this could delay recovery efforts as companies continue to trim expenses and pause space decisions. For multifamily, it could mean persistently high financing costs that slow new development and tighten investor returns.

The good news? The broader tariff pause removes some global uncertainty, which may help with capital market sentiment. But the inflation risk tied to Chinese goods is real—and it doesn’t appear to besgoing away anytime soon.

What We’re Hearing on the Ground

I’m hearing our customers express real concern about a potential recession, and they’re watching global markets like hawks. But I’m also hearing something else worth noting: brokerage teams are staying busy. Most of them have strong volumes of new listings in the pipeline, and this is fueling a surprising sense of optimism.

There’s noise everywhere but remember: there’s also real activity—and that tells me the market isn’t sitting still. Not even close.

What We’re Tracking Now

Port Traffic – Watch for a short-term spike in imports from China ahead of enforcement.
Retail REIT Guidance – Who’s exposed to China? Q2 earnings calls will reveal a lot.
Industrial Rents – Look for strength in regions positioned to benefit from reshoring or rerouted trade flows.

Final Word

The presidential pivot sent the markets higher—but beneath the surface, the 125% tariff on China is a structural shift with long-term implications.

If you’re in CRE, don’t get distracted by the market rally. Stay focused on trade routes, tenant risk, and capital flows. Because while the headlines were bullish, the fundamentals are changing—and the smart investors know it.

And keep listening to what the market indicators—and your clients—are telling you.