By: Dianne Crocker, LightBox research director
The Q1 2025 earnings reports from the top five commercial real estate brokerages—CBRE, JLL, Cushman & Wakefield, Colliers, and Newmark—are more than just quarterly scorecards. They offer a window into the strategies of firms that sit at the crossroads of investment, leasing, and capital flows, making their performance and outlooks a critical indicator of where the broader CRE market is headed. While caution still lingers in capital markets, this quarter’s results reveal a sector cautiously stepping out of defensive posture and slowly regaining its footing.
“The capital markets aren’t roaring back, but they’re clearly stirring,” said Manus Clancy, head of Data Strategy at LightBox. “We’re seeing real signs that price discovery is stabilizing, and capital is cautiously returning to the table.”
That measured optimism was echoed across earnings calls, with firms reporting stronger deal pipelines, a gradual thaw in investor sentiment, and deliberate strategies aimed at capturing long-term upside. The signal to CRE professionals is that the market hasn’t fully rebounded, but momentum is building again. As the industry shifts its focus toward long-term growth, here are five key takeaways from the major brokerage firms’ Q1 earnings reports.
1. Higher Revenues, More Guarded Outlooks
After a sluggish 2024, the deal pipeline is finally gaining meaningful traction. Brokerages across the board reported increasing revenues in their capital markets divisions, with JLL and Newmark posting standout year-over-year growth of 16% and 33%, respectively. It’s a strong sign that investment sales are beginning to recover. While transaction volumes haven’t returned to pre-pandemic levels, the pace is accelerating as price discovery stabilizes and buyers re-engage.
“The continued improvement of our leasing and investment sales, debt and equity advisory businesses was a key driver of higher profit and margin,” said JLL CEO Christian Ulbrich, citing momentum carried over from late 2024 as a critical force for real estate fundamentals. The firm also saw a surge in debt advisory activity—often a leading indicator that capital is preparing to move.
At Newmark, the outlook came with a more tempered tone. CEO Barry Gosin noted that while transaction volume rose sharply across all major asset classes, the road ahead remains uneven. “We recognize that there are potential geopolitical headwinds that may have a dampening effect on industry activity,” he said during the earnings call, referencing global instability and persistent interest rate uncertainty as key factors shaping investor behavior.
That dual narrative—rising activity and cautious optimism—is reflected in LightBox’s April 2025 CRE Activity Index, which stayed above the 100 baseline for the second consecutive month. While the market remains below full recovery, the data indicates deals are moving forward but with a more targeted, strategic focus.
2. From Freeze to Flex: Cautious Momentum Takes Root
The most significant shift in Q1 wasn’t just in transaction volume—it was in sentiment. After a prolonged period of hesitation given market volatility and policy uncertainty, capital markets are turning the corner. Earnings calls across the top brokerages reflected a noticeable change in tone. Terms like “stabilizing,” “improving pipelines,” and “returning buyer interest” replaced last year’s refrains of “frozen” and “paused.”
Cushman & Wakefield CEO Michelle MacKay put it plainly: “We are not witnessing a freeze in decision-making. And that’s in large part why we see our Q2 numbers—and frankly, our 2025 performance—staying intact.” CBRE echoed that sentiment, citing pipeline strength should continue “as long as rates on the capital market side—the 10-year I’m speaking to—don’t go above 5%.”
LightBox data reflects this shift. The Q1 2025 LightBox Capital Markets Snapshot report shows a market that began the year with strong momentum—but ended the first quarter with more caution. January optimism drove listings to a three-year high, with the LightBox Property Listings Index surging to 173.3—a 57% jump from Q4. But by March, that enthusiasm cooled amid rising Treasury volatility, uncertainty around Fed policy, and new tariff announcements.
This blend of momentum and restraint reflects a familiar condition in CRE. The market is moving again—but selectively. Activity is increasingly concentrated in sectors with strong fundamentals–industrial, multifamily, and specialized asset classes like data centers–where investor confidence remains intact, but highly sensitive to macroeconomic signals.
3. The Debt Market Is Loosening—with Discipline
The lending environment is gradually thawing—but progress remains uneven. Traditional banks continue to tread carefully, constrained by regulatory pressures and balance sheet considerations. In contrast, alternative capital sources are stepping in. CMBS issuance is rebounding, and debt funds along with private credit are showing renewed willingness to lend, even in today’s higher-rate environment.
JLL’s Q1 2025 results highlight this shift. The firm reported a significant 45% year-over-year increase in revenue from its debt advisory business, signaling a rise in refinancing, repricing, and creative deal structuring. CFO Karen Brennan noted that “increased investor desire to transact and more liquidity entering the market supported the continuation of favorable trends from the fourth quarter,” driving 45% growth in debt advisory and 15% in investment sales. Newmark echoed this momentum, with capital markets’ volume up 62.5% year-over-year in Q1, driven largely by debt activity. The firm also reported a 40% increase in GSE FHA originations.
For borrowers, capital is available—but with caveats. Underwriting remains stringent, and loan pricing reflects the new interest rate environment. Lenders are active, but successful execution now requires disciplined strategy, strong fundamentals, and a clear understanding of shifting market dynamics.
4. Capital Values Quality Over Quantity
Capital is still moving, but with greater selectivity. Across all five major brokerages, Q1 earnings commentary consistently emphasized a “flight to quality.” Investors are targeting well-located, stabilized assets with strong tenants and exposure to growth markets. Office remains the sector under the most pressure, but even there, Class A assets in top-tier locations are seeing renewed interest.
Michelle MacKay, CEO of Cushman & Wakefield, underscored this trend: “We are continuing to see improving trends in office and strong demand for high-quality products.”
An analysis of property assets listed on the LightBox RCM platform in Q1 2025 shows that multifamily, industrial, and retail collectively made up 66% of all listings, with multifamily leading at 33%. While investor demand for these core sectors remains strong, performance is increasingly driven by market-specific and sub-asset class dynamics, as investors navigate today’s uncertainty and evolving policy risks.
For CRE professionals, this signals a need for disciplined underwriting. Deals are happening—but only when assets meet the criteria of today’s capital: stable cash flows, long-term viability, and geographic positioning that can weather economic shifts.
5. Strategic Expansion Signals Long-Term Confidence
Firms like Colliers are using this phase of the cycle to double down on long-term growth. In Q1, Colliers expanded its infrastructure and advisory capabilities—moves aimed not at short-term gains, but at strengthening recurring revenue and positioning the firm for durable value creation.
“These aren’t opportunistic acquisitions. Time and again, our leadership team has navigated uncertainty with discipline and seized opportunities that present themselves,” said Colliers Chairman & CEO Jay Hennick, speaking to the firm’s recent M&A activity.
The shift toward diversified, services-driven revenue reflects a broader industry pivot to weather market cycles more effectively.
What’s Next for CRE Capital Markets
The CRE capital markets aren’t surging—but they’re advancing.
However, the path ahead is narrow. The market remains highly sensitive to interest rate movements, regulatory shifts, and macroeconomic indicators. But Q1 marked a turning point—toward a cautiously optimistic mindset even in the face of significant uncertainty.
For brokers, investors, and lenders, that means it’s time to recalibrate. Opportunities are emerging—but only for those positioned to move with precision and patience.
At LightBox, we’ll continue to monitor and report on these developments through our CRE Activity Index, market snapshots, and capital flow analysis. The recovery may be uneven, but it has begun—and those who act strategically now will be positioned to take advantage of the next wave of opportunities in this CRE cycle.
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