Deal Momentum Continues
In the first clear signal of CRE velocity following the sweeping Trump tariff announcements, the LightBox CRE Activity Index rose to 109 in April, up slightly from 107.9 in March. That marks the second consecutive triple-digit reading and the highest level since June 2022—up 1% month-over-month and 26% year-over-year.
That strength comes despite mounting headwinds: GDP contracted, consumer confidence slipped, and lenders grew more cautious in the wake of early-April volatility. In response, stocks see-sawed, and many in the CRE world braced for a slowdown. But so far, the data behind the Index isn’t showing signs of contagion in deal flow.
Behind the three-pronged Index is a reassuring trend of brokers continuing to list commercial properties for sale and lenders actively seeking the environmental due diligence and appraisals that precede loan originations, refinancing, and transactions. While the Index’s upward trajectory is encouraging, the slower pace of month-over-month growth compared to the prior three months underscores a noticeable shift in tone.
April Marks Highest Index in Nearly Three Years
April’s Index reading at 109 was a welcome sign of relief that the strong momentum in dealmaking of 2025 continues across buyer types, asset classes, and geographies. More notable, however, is that the monthly pace of growth—drawn from more than 30,000 data points from property listings, Phase I ESAs, and appraisal orders across LightBox platforms—is decelerating.
- Commercial property listings rose 3% from March and 48% year-over-year as more sellers brought inventory to market.
- Phase I environmental site assessments (ESAs), typically conducted before major CRE loans or transactions, were flat month-over-month but 12% higher than one year ago.
- Lender-driven commercial appraisal orders climbed 6% over March and 5% year-over-year, signaling continued demand for valuations ahead of transactions and refinancing.
Monthly LightBox CRE Activity Index (January 2021 – Present)
Manus Clancy
Head of Data Strategy
LightBox
“Despite a noisy macro backdrop, April’s Index shows that commercial real estate activity is still advancing. The momentum from earlier in the year hasn’t vanished—but the tempo has clearly slowed as caution sets in.”
All Eyes on May as the CRE Momentum Faces Its First Real Test
Although April’s CRE Activity Index was the highest in nearly three years, the slower pace of month-over-month growth compared to the first three months of the year could well be the early signs of a market pause triggered by the cloudy economic forecast as tariffs take effect. Despite still-unsettled broader financial markets and wild swings in the 10-year Treasury, the Index continued to track the increased movement of commercial property assets into the market. Given the modest 1% month-over-month growth in April, May’s Index will be very telling in terms of whether the current trajectory of momentum to date in 2025 holds or begins to soften—in an early sign of a slowdown.
Uncertainty around trade policy will continue to be top of mind in May, and the market situation is extremely fluid. As the past few months have demonstrated, things can change very quickly. In response to the whipsaw developments in tariff policies, slower economic growth scenarios are becoming the new consensus among forecasters as the odds of a mild recession rise. Much remains unclear, the greatest of which is the length that tariffs will be in effect and at what level, particularly for China.
The good news is that, despite growing uncertainty and signs of economic cooling, the CRE market continues to show resilience—and in some sectors, strength. Deals are getting done, loans are being underwritten, and refinancings are moving forward. CMBS issuance is gaining momentum, insurers are returning to the lending table, and big-ticket deals across asset classes and geographies are still closing coast to coast.
“We’re now four weeks into the new tariff era,” said Clancy. “The longer the CRE wheels stay on, the more likely that confidence will return to the market. That renewed confidence could translate into tighter spreads, more active lending, and a gradual return to normalcy.”
Far from retreating, the market is recalibrating—proceeding with more discipline, not less activity. Momentum is holding, even if cautiously, and capital is still flowing. Looking ahead, watch for shifts in the volume of properties listed for sale or a retreat by willing buyers and lenders as signs of cracks in CRE. For now, CRE remains a surprisingly steady harbor in choppy economic waters.
ABOUT THE MONTHLY LIGHTBOX CRE INDEX
The LightBox Monthly CRE Activity Index is an aggregate that represents a composite measure of movements across activity in appraisals, environmental due diligence, and commercial property listings as a barometer of broad industry shifts in response to changes in market conditions. To receive LightBox reports, subscribe to Insights.
Subscribe To Insights
Be the first to get the latest news, updates and insights from LightBox.
