As 2025 comes to a close, much of the focus has shifted to what comes next. Before turning the page, it is worth pausing on the signals that drew the most attention as the year unfolded. These were moments when data, risk, and market behavior converged in ways that warranted a closer look.
The stories below highlight the issues and inflection points that resonated most with CRE professionals as conditions evolved throughout the year. Each captures how the market responded in real time, without the benefit of hindsight.
CRE Index Hits 2025 Peak as Market Navigates Crosscurrents
September marked a clear inflection point for market activity, with the LightBox CRE Activity Index reaching 116.8, its highest level of 2025. New listings rose 25% month over month, while appraisal and environmental due diligence activity remained steady, signaling broader participation across the transaction pipeline as interest rates eased and deal momentum strengthened.
Why it matters now
Looking back, September stands out as the moment when improving sentiment began to translate into measurable market activity.
LightBox Transaction Tracker Report: Mid-Cap CRE Deals Surge to Highest Level of 2025
October deal data showed transaction activity broadening across property types and deal sizes, with $34.6B in major CRE transactions and a sharp increase in mid-cap deals. Pricing held up across repeat sales, and capital extended beyond core multifamily into retail, office, healthcare, and data centers.
Why it matters now
In hindsight, October marked a meaningful expansion in deal activity that set expectations for how capital would behave through year-end.
The Environmental Crisis After Wildfires Unseen Threats in Recovery
The year began with devastating wildfires in Southern California, where recovery efforts quickly revealed environmental risks extending well beyond visible damage. LightBox analysis identified hundreds of properties within fire perimeters facing potential contamination from petroleum releases, asbestos, and underground storage tanks, complicating redevelopment and long-term safety.
Why it matters now
As cleanup and recovery efforts continue, post-fire environmental risks remain a critical factor for rebuilding and community health.
LightBox CRE Survey Signals Investment Uptick in H2 as Pricing Gaps Narrows
Midyear survey results pointed to improving investor sentiment in the second half of 2025, as more respondents planned to increase activity and pricing gaps between buyers and sellers began to narrow. Retail, multifamily, and industrial attracted the most interest, while office continued to lag.
Why it matters now
With the benefit of hindsight, the survey provides a useful benchmark for how rising confidence translated into increased engagement later in the year.
Land Strategy Is Shifting as Builder-Developers Rethink Site Selection
In 2025, builders began rethinking land strategy as rising lot costs, labor constraints, and uneven demand made large, master-planned communities harder to justify. LightBox analysis showed increased focus on infill and smaller suburban sites, where access to infrastructure and faster execution offered better cost control and flexibility.
Why it matters now
As the year closes, these shifts help explain how builders are positioning for 2026, prioritizing execution certainty and affordability over scale.
Top 10 Emerging GIS Trends
GIS integration and AI-enabled spatial analytics progressed faster than many anticipated, with trends such as automated imagery extraction and real-time decisioning emerging as core themes in 2025, offering firms new ways to integrate geospatial intelligence into valuation, site selection, and resilience planning.
Why it matters now
Investors, developers, and lenders can apply these spatial data innovations in workflows in 2026 to enhance predictive analysis and operational decision-making.
Zoning and Land Use Considerations for Data Centers
As demand for cloud infrastructure and AI computing grew, data center projects exposed gaps in local zoning frameworks, with inconsistent land use classifications and infrastructure requirements creating drag on approvals and development timetables.
Why it matters now
Zoning clarity and adaptable land use codes are essential for planning digital infrastructure investments and anticipating community impacts in 2026.
Lightbox Appraisal Index Hits Highest Level in Three Years
The Q3 2025 LightBox Appraisal Index climbed to its highest level in three years, reflecting stronger appraisal activity driven by easing rates and refinancing demand, even as sector performance diverged across property types.
Why it matters now
This appraisal momentum provides a baseline for understanding credit and collateral dynamics as lenders assess risk and opportunity entering 2026.
Strengthening Environmental Due Diligence with Climate Risk Intelligence
In 2025, environmental due diligence expanded beyond historical contamination toward climate-driven risk frameworks, incorporating fire, flood, and other hazard histories to give a more connected, resilience-focused view of property risk.
Why it matters now
As climate exposures continue to influence underwriting and valuation decisions, integrating past hazards with forward-looking risk models will shape diligence practices in the year ahead.
What 30 Banks Taught Us About Building Trust in Appraisal Data
Dialogues with 30 bank appraisal leaders revealed that while AI accelerates extraction, the greater challenge lies in building reliable, validated data flows that serve credit, risk, and regulatory needs across institutions.
Why it matters now
As lenders invest in data infrastructure, trust and consistency in appraisal data will be critical for portfolio-level decisioning in 2026.
These were the signals that shaped 2025. From early-year disruptions to late-year shifts in capital deployment, each reflects how the CRE market adjusted as conditions changed. As attention turns to 2026, they provide context for what changed, what held, and which forces are likely to carry forward.
