Transaction Activity Builds Despite Market Uncertainty
The macro environment changed considerably during the first half of 2026, but commercial real estate transaction activity proved more resilient than the headlines might suggest.
Higher oil prices, inflation above 4% by late Q2, geopolitical uncertainty, and a Federal Reserve holding rates steady all added pressure to the market. Yet CRE deal activity continued to build. LightBox tracked 4,174 transactions in Q2, up 12% from Q1, with June reaching 1,687 transactions. Preliminary July activity was already running roughly level with June at the time of the report.
The takeaway from the latest LightBox Major CRE Transaction Tracker is increasingly clear: investors are no longer waiting for a return to the financing environment of several years ago. They are finding ways to transact in the market they have today.
Capital Is Moving, But More Selectively
Q2 activity was led by retail at 23%, multifamily at 20%, and office at 17%, together representing 60% of transactions. Industrial delivered the strongest quarter-over-quarter growth, rising 29%, while retail increased 14%. Land transactions, by contrast, declined 18% as higher construction and development costs continued to challenge new projects.
But the midyear story is less about one asset class outperforming every other and more about growing differentiation.
Investor interest remains broad, yet performance increasingly varies by individual market, submarket and asset. LightBox Live data reinforces that interest has not disappeared: confidentiality agreements per listing increased to 139 in Q2 from 133 in Q1 across a pool of 270,000 listings, with multifamily, industrial and office attracting the greatest interest.
That selectivity is showing up differently across sectors. Retail continues to benefit from limited new supply and resilient consumer spending. Industrial fundamentals remain healthy, although performance is increasingly dependent on geography. Multifamily is absorbing a wave of new supply in some Sun Belt markets, while supply-constrained cities such as Chicago, New York and San Francisco are seeing stronger rents. And office remains highly bifurcated, with trophy properties performing very differently from commodity and suburban buildings.
Big Buyers Are Back in the Market
The largest transactions of Q2 provide another signal that capital is actively looking for opportunities.
Portfolio acquisitions led the quarter, including BKM Capital Partners and Kayne Anderson Real Estate’s $1.81 billion acquisition of 51 light-industrial properties and a $910 million student housing portfolio acquisition by The Scion Group and Ares Real Estate.
Office also accounted for six of the quarter’s 20 largest buyer transactions, but those deals illustrate just how different today’s investment strategies can be. Vornado Realty Trust’s acquisition of a 49% interest in Park Avenue Plaza valued the Manhattan trophy asset at $1.1 billion, while other buyers pursued deeply repriced office opportunities, including Seattle’s U.S. Bank Center at roughly 54% below its 2019 purchase price.
The common denominator isn’t necessarily property type. It is capital concentrating around assets where buyers see durable demand, strategic scale, attractive basis or a clear path to value creation.
The Market Has Adjusted to Higher-for-Longer Rates
Perhaps the most important shift at midyear is behavioral.
Investors appear increasingly willing to underwrite today’s financing conditions rather than base decisions on expectations for significant near-term rate relief. The result is a more disciplined market centered on local supply and demand, population and employment trends, cash flow and asset-level fundamentals.
Price discovery is also improving, although the variance between assets remains significant. Among the 13% of Q2 transactions for which previous pricing was available, the average loss was $28.8 million while average appreciation was $8.7 million. Office accounted for the five largest declines, while select industrial assets demonstrated substantial appreciation.
That divergence reinforces one of the defining characteristics of this cycle: broad market assumptions are becoming less useful. Local intelligence and individual asset fundamentals matter more.
What You’ll Find in the Midyear Transaction Tracker
The full report takes a deeper look at the forces shaping CRE investment activity, including:
- Q2 transaction volume and month-over-month deal trends
- Transaction activity by property type
- The changing outlook for retail, multifamily, office, industrial and land
- Q2’s largest buyers and notable transactions
- The significant pricing divergence emerging across assets
- The factors that could support—or challenge—transaction activity during the second half of 2026
The first half suggests a CRE market that has proven more durable than the macro backdrop might imply. Capital is available and deals are getting done, but investors are underwriting with greater discipline and placing more weight on the specific fundamentals of each property and market.
Read the 2026 Mid-year LightBox Major CRE Transaction Tracker for a closer look at where capital is moving, what investors are prioritizing, and the signals shaping the second half of 2026.
