Higher-for-longer rates are no longer a temporary condition. With the 10-year Treasury at 4.85%, refinancing costs elevated, and expectations for multiple 2026 rate cuts fading, commercial real estate investors are learning to operate in a market where waiting for cheaper capital may no longer be a strategy.
This week, Manus Clancy and Dianne Crocker are joined by Jeff Brown, Founder, CEO and Co-CIO of T2, a bridge lender and investment firm with more than $1.4 billion in assets under management. Brown shares where T2 is playing offense today, why distress remains asset-specific rather than widespread, and where he sees compelling opportunities across multifamily, student housing, and senior secured lending.
The conversation explores CRE’s increasingly K-shaped recovery given the divide between well-capitalized owners and borrowers facing maturing debt, the multifamily supply cliff that could begin rewarding select markets in 2027, and why Chicago’s limited construction pipeline has helped make it a top market for rent growth. Brown also explains why flagship universities are stronger targets for student housing investment than smaller regional institutions.
Plus, the group discusses the implications of the billion-dollar AI and data center gold rush, encouraging signs of renewed strength in office leasing, and the macro risks that could disrupt CRE’s resilience.
In a market defined by uncertainty, the opportunities are there. The challenge is knowing where to look.
00:00 Welcome and Meet Jeff Brown of T2
03:22 Higher-for-Longer and CRE’s K-Shaped Market
07:58 Playing Offense as Distress Emerges
11:40 Multifamily Repricing and the Supply Cliff
19:08 Rising Costs and the Student Housing Divide
23:54 The AI and Data Center Gold Rush
27:49 Where Brown Sees the Best Investment Opportunity
32:28 What Could Disrupt CRE’s Resilience
Have questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com
